The Contrary Scotsman's Blog

Presidential Candidate Newt Gingrich Speaks at Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition

2011-10-24T19:26:00.000-07:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB181Lm9shs

Watch Newt's speech that has everyone buzzing. The Des Moines Register wrote, "Simply put, Newt Gingrich was on fire, Iowa conservatives said after the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition banquet Saturday night. The crowd interrupted his address with at least two standing ovations and storms of large applause."

New Appraisal Rules--Why the Housing Market May Never Recover

2011-08-12T13:47:00.001-07:00

These new government rules force lenders to use out of market appraisers and force appraisers to use short sales and foreclosure sales as comparables. These are not open market, willing buyer-willing seller sales and depress prices. The rules also limit the range of comparable sales which often is impossible in some rural areas.

These rules do not comply with generally accepted appraisal proceedures and change the valuation model. Dr. Afred Ring, who taught me at U of Florida and wrote the textbook, used to say when his students would tell him that they couldn't find a comparable sale, "have you looked in China?" That was his way of teaching that you could always find a comparable sale if you looked hard enough.

Real estate appraisal is an art not a science and relies on the judgement and experience of the appraiser.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704853404575322993513715532.html

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-07-14-home-appraisals_N.htm

http://www.bmandg.com/Articles/ArticleView/tabid/94/smid/426/ArticleID/112/reftab/57/Default.aspx

Chart of Projection Below

2011-02-26T10:39:00.000-08:00

What We Can Expect This Year In The Market

2011-01-22T12:44:00.000-08:00

This latest Wave 5 will be equal to Wave 1 of the latest move since July 2010 when we top DJI 12,000. We will have then also completed a 5 count wave advance since March 2009. We can expect a sharp correction after that level is reached, but remember Wave 5's can extend further than the "rule of wave equality" if the market is extremely strong, which doesn't appear to be the case here. At best the correction will be severe but short and the market will continue the advance. At worse the current correction will be an extended B Wave and the correction since March 2009 will be a Zigzag 5-3-5 (both A and C Waves contain 5 counts) which will go sideways with the next C Wave making a slightly higher high above DJI 12,000. This may take all this year to complete. It is always a red flag when too many start agreeing with you on a market direction and must be taken as a contrary indicator.

How the Crisis Happened

2010-11-22T14:26:00.000-08:00

Click here: Video - Opinion Journal: How the Crisis Happened--Peter Wallison of the FCIC tells what he's learned. - WSJ.com

Can We Fight The Tape?

2010-10-26T13:19:00.000-07:00

Click here: this stock boom is nuts but you can't fight the tape saluzzi: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
Elliott Wave Theory states the a Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. We have now done that. If we go higher from here (above DJI 11,250) we have to go to the alternate count of another Wave 3 of 5.
Doom and gloom will again have to wait for later.

The Person or The Party

2010-10-18T14:40:00.000-07:00

Contrary to what some may think, there is a tremendous difference in the two parties that we have to choose from in our most important elections. One of the greatest differences is each parties' attitude toward human nature. Most Democrats (Liberals, Progressives, Big Government Leftists, Statists, etc.) think they can CHANGE human nature to accomplish some desired result. Most Republicans (Conservatives, Libertarians, Small Government Tea Party members) know the best way to accomplish a desired result is to USE human nature. Dale Carnegie said the best way to get somebody to do what you want is to convince them that it was their idea.

One of the most important differences is in tax policy. When I wrote my senior thesis on this subject for a class on Economic Systems in 1966, the evidence was overwhelming then that reducing marginal tax rates was the best way to spur economic growth. Presidents Kennedy and Reagan proved it again by starting the greatest economic growth in the history of the world by reducing marginal tax rates. President Bush again used this to get us out of the recession after the dot.com bust and 9/11, until the bad government policy of encouraging banks to give mortgages to those who could not pay them back caused the housing bust. In all cases, reducing marginal tax rates resulted in increased revenue to the IRS and in some cases it doubled. Democrats say that giving tax reductions to the wealthy, who pay the largest percentage of taxes, is not fair no matter the economics. They also say that the wealthy will not spend their reduction and will just invest it or put in the bank. Actually because of the multiplier effect of our fractional banking system, this is just what is needed for sustained economic growth. Experience shows that tax rebates only have a temporary effect. We need both spending by consumers and investment to create jobs and sustained growth.

Some still think that they are smart to vote for the man rather than the party. That sounds noble but it does not take into account how our two party system works. Of course you want to vote for the man that best represents your politics. But you also want to vote for the party that best reflects your political philosophy and realize that when the candidates get to Washington DC or Tallahassee they will be under tremendous pressure to vote with their party. In fact if they don't, they will not curry favor with the party leadership, will not advance in the party, and will not get their choice of committees where most of the work is done. Don't be a single issue voter. Vote for the party that best reflects the majority of your views.

The Next Shoe to Drop

2010-08-27T14:21:00.000-07:00

Click here: S&P Says US Should Act to Protect AAA-Rating: Report - CNBC

Is this the next shoe to drop and cause the stock market to panic?

Click here: the hindenburg omen is scary but so are the fundamentals: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Click here: economist-shiller-sees-potential-for-double-dip-recession: Personal Finance News from Yahoo!

Symbolism over Substance

2010-08-19T13:58:00.001-07:00

Click here: Pat Condell on Ground Zero mosque: "Is it possible to be astonished, but not surprised?" - Jihad Watch

You would think that the party of symbolism over substance would understand the objections.

Click here: YouTube - I Want Your Money Trailer (2010) HD

No Matter the Motive, the Result is the Same

2010-08-08T13:46:00.000-07:00

Click here: WAYNE ALLYN ROOT: Obama's agenda: Overwhelm the system - Opinion - ReviewJournal.com

"Rahm Emanuel cynically said, 'You never want a crisis to go to waste.' It is now becoming clear that the crisis he was referring to is Barack Obama's presidency.
Obama is no fool. He is not incompetent. To the contrary, he is brilliant. He knows exactly what he's doing. He is purposely overwhelming the U.S. economy to create systemic failure, economic crisis and social chaos -- thereby destroying capitalism and our country from within."

Click here: WAYNE ALLYN ROOT: The real agenda of Barack Obama - Opinion - ReviewJournal.com

A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’

2010-07-06T13:06:00.000-07:00

Click here: Strategy: A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’ - CNBC

“I don’t want to agree with him (Prechter) , because if he’s right, we’ve basically got to go to the mountains with a gun and some soup cans, because it’s all over.”

We should have now completed the first wave down from the DJI 11,200 level. It was a complex wave that was hard to follow. The last rally looked like the start of a Wave II with a five wave count, but it was instead a C wave of Wave 4 of the Wave I decline. If Wave 5 of I is now over, we should now start a Wave II rally back to the DJI 10,500 (10,625 for a 0.618 retracement) or so level.
The next Wave III is the wave we should be concerned about, since it is usually the quickest with the mostest, and, according to the rule of alternation, it should be a fairly simple straight drop with a greater length (probably a 1.618 multiple) than the first Wave I drop.
(See comments for mini-updates)

Failed Presidency

2010-06-09T13:54:00.000-07:00

Dorothy Rabinowitz: The Alien in the White House - WSJ.com

American Thinker: Another Failed Presidency

RealClearPolitics - Video - Obama Seeking "Ass To Kick" Over Oil Spill

"Profanity is the effort of a feeble mind to express itself forcibly."

OLD STOCKBROKER SAYINGS

2010-06-08T13:10:00.000-07:00

OLD STOCKBROKER'S SAY
1. An investment is a trade that didn't work.
2. The first bad news is not the last bad news,
but the first good news is probably the last good news.
3. I lost a fortune in the stock market today---yours.
4. Short sales pitch: Today we doin IBM. You in?
5. Hot tip: Don't buy options.
6. "One guy in a million understands what's going on nowadays, yet I wind up sitting next to him every time!" (from a Frank & Earnest cartoon that my mother left on my desk one morning after I had been holding forth on the state of the world the night before--talk about humbling--wisdom from the funny papers!)

DJIA 5,000?

2010-05-14T13:26:00.000-07:00

Click here: CNBC Stock Market News — Another 'Freefall' to Push Dow Below 5000: Strategist - CNBC

If the primary Elliott Wave count is correct, we should be starting Primary Wave 3 which would take us much lower (wave equality plus) than the March 2009 low. The alternate wave count, which we have to consider, would be that the upward wave just completed is Wave 1 of another upward Wave 5. Considering the economic conditions and out of control spending by this administration, the primary count makes more sense. It will not happen overnight and may be slow with pockets of sharp declines.

I have taken positions in the SDS and QID and plan to hold them for a long time, although I have not liquidated all my stocks yet. We should get a rally back close to the DJI 11,000 level (a wave 2 rally after we complete the current wave 1 decline below DJI 10,380) and if it doesn't make a new high over about DJI 11,250, that would be the time to liquidate.

Housing Bubble Continues

2010-05-12T14:36:00.000-07:00

Click here: housing bulls are "not paying attention" to the facts says dean baker: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

"Baker lays out several reasons for his bearish case:

Programs that lifted the market, including the tax credit for first-time buyers, have expired.
The Federal Reserve is exiting the mortgage market, which will likely push rates to 5.5% to 6% by the end of the year.
There's still an inventory glut and rental rates are falling in many markets, notes Baker, author of "False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy." He says the rental market doesn't lie."

Market Risk

2010-04-24T14:15:00.000-07:00

April 23, 2010 Friday we eased up to DJIA 11,200+ in a five wave count. That took us to a 0.618 retracement of the drop from the market high in 2007 to the March 2009 low as I predicted on November 23, 2009. In Elliott Wave Theory, a Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of the Wave 1 fall from the high, but it would be highly unusual for it to do so. The risk of staying in the market just increased exponentially, even though all stocks have not been under distribution yet.

Action in Avon

2010-04-13T14:38:00.000-07:00

Today AVP was down 8% and traded 0ver 21 million shares (about 5 to 6 times normal volume) on some trumped up news about China. This is what is known as a shake out. Something important will probably happen soon--maybe a takeover. This is the second such shakeout that has occured in the last 6 months. The stock has dramatically moved from weak hands to strong hands.

Democrat Votes

2010-03-24T13:06:00.000-07:00

But did they really get the most votes? Let's take a closer look their voters:
1. They got more votes from illegal aliens;
2. They got more votes from the homeless, if supporters gave them cigarettes;
3. They got more votes from college students that bragg about voting multiple times;
4. They got more votes from dead people in Chicago and elswhere;
5. They got more votes from convicted felons in Florida and elsewhere;
6. They got more votes from people who could not speak English;
7. They got more votes from government entitlement recipients;
8. They got more votes from people who were so illiterate that they could not properly fill in a ballot;
9. They got more votes from people who let others tell them how to vote, rather than think for themselves.
10. And they got more votes from the trial lawyers, who laugh about their swarmy efforts in getting military absentee votes thrown out in 2000.

HONESTLY FOLKS, ARE THESE THE PEOPLE WE WANT SELECTING THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA?????

Miss This Guy?

2010-03-14T14:41:00.000-07:00

"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell where they already have it." -Ronald Reagan
'Here's my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose.' - Ronald Reagan
'The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'-Ronald Reagan
'The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.' -Ronald Reagan
'Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because the U.S. was too strong.'- Ronald Reagan'
I have wondered at times about what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the U.S. Congress.' -Ronald Reagan
'The taxpayer: That's someone who works for the federal government but doesn't have to take the civil service examination.'- Ronald Reagan
'Government is like a baby: An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.'- Ronald Reagan
'The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a government program.' - Ronald Reagan
'It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.'- Ronald Reagan
'Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it' - Ronald Reagan
'Politics is not a bad profession. If you succeed, there are many rewards; if you disgrace yourself, you can always write a book.'- Ronald Reagan
'No arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is as formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women.'- Ronald Reagan
'If we ever forget that we're one nation under GOD, then we will be a nation gone under.'-Ronald Reagan

Voter Testing

2010-03-05T13:37:00.000-08:00

Prechter Market Warning

2010-02-24T12:24:00.000-08:00

Click here: bullish a year ago robert prechter now sees "the biggest bubble in history": Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

As usual with market gurus, he is more interested in being right than with protecting investors.

This kind of announcement causes a lot of selling by those who follow him and his theories. This kind of selling gives the market makers more inventory and more incentive to rally the market. Therefore, he may indeed be right in the long run but his ego causes him to make this kind of prediction too early. You might notice that he is promoting his book and emphasizing the actions of investors rather than those of the market and its insiders. Remember that rising prices create buying demand by so called investors and falling prices create selling and supply. I still believe that the market is going higher before the next major wave down.

Ronald Reagan on the Real Purpose of National Health Insurance and why the Democrats want it sooooo bad!

2010-02-12T14:06:00.000-08:00

Click here: YouTube - Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine

Breitbarts keynote address to Tea Party Convention

2010-02-10T14:05:00.000-08:00

Click here: (VIDEO) Breitbart’s Full Length Keynote Address To The First National Tea Party Convention : Founding Bloggers

A Confederacy of Fools

2010-02-08T15:39:00.000-08:00

There is no source attributed to this quotation. But it makes a certain amount of sense…unless you are an Obama devotee, then of course you are one of those fools.

A Confederacy of Fools. Author unknown.

"The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the presidency. It will be easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails us. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president."

9/12 March on Washington DC

2010-01-15T11:53:00.000-08:00

Here We Are Part 1, 2, 3 and 4: The 912 March on Washington shot and edited by Alan Fraser:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCqxB-e9Ues&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChvMRUoTNgE&NR=1

Newt Gingrich : Impeach judges, Crush and Replace the Left - 2012 "Victory or Death"

2009-12-31T14:22:00.000-08:00

Click here: YouTube - Pt.1 Newt Gingrich : Impeach judges, Crush and Replace the Left - 2012 "Victory or Death"
"These are people of stunningly limited capacity. They get up every morning..they know is answer is government. They just don't know what the question is yet."

Those that won't study history are bound to repeat it.

2009-12-07T13:24:00.000-08:00

1934 Chicago Tribune

Barack Obama accused of making 'Depression' mistakes

2009-11-24T13:42:00.000-08:00

Click here: Barack Obama accused of making 'Depression' mistakes - Telegraph

Banana Republics here we come to join you as we pass programs to bankrupt us.

Raised by Marxists, mentored by Marxists, hung out with Marxist professors (from his book), associated with radical leftists in Chicago and appointed others to Czar posts at the White House, with an academic background never having really run or managed anything but a political campaign. Just what did the cool aid drinking voters think he meant by "fundamentally changing America"? Or did they have enough intelligence to care? How's that "hope and change" working out?
Click here: The New Media Journal The Fundamental Transformation of America by Matt Bruce

The only thing that may save us is the Democrat Party itself as it does what it always does and overreach. The American people will then see them for what they are and reject them again as they did in 1980 with Jimmy "I want to be severely tested" Carter.

Stock Market and Elliott Wave Analysis

2009-11-23T21:04:00.000-08:00

After making an extended Wave 1 down from the record top of the market (5 waves indicating the overall direction of the market), the major indicators are in the process of making an A,B,C corrective Wave 2. We are starting to see the completion of the C wave at present which may or may not take the market as high as DJI 11210, which would be a fibonacci 0.618 correction of the move down to the March 2009 lows from the market's highs. These types of C waves are often taken as the beginning of a new bull market, since they unfold in 5 waves, but they are bear traps.

Democrats

2009-11-23T21:02:00.000-08:00

October 10, 2008 - The Democrat Party has finally achieved what the terrorists failed to do on 9/11/01. They have succeeded in almost destroying the American banking system and the economy. And who gets the blame--Republicans as usual. I have to admit that I did not think a few foreclosures would have this much of an effect on the markets. I forgot about the fractional banking system and how highly the banks were leveraged, especially the investment banks. However, buying for the long term is usually a good idea at this kind of market capitulation.

How the Democrats Created the Financial Crisis: Kevin Hassett
15 Things You Need to Know About the Panic of 2008
YouTube - Shocking Video Unearthed Democrats in their own words Covering up the Mortgage problem

Bad Loan Securitization

2009-11-23T20:38:00.000-08:00

October 2008 - CDS derivatives (Credit Default Swaps) were creating by some Harvard Business School hotshot to insure (to raise the ratings to AAA) and market packages of shakey mortgages and were merely a symptom of the problem of the underlying mortgage securities which were created to implement bad government social policy. The first thing I remember hearing on the news about this crisis was that lenders would be required to verify the income of future borrowers--I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

The CDS's and the resulting CDO's were an attempt to make a "silk purse out of a sow's ear".

The Rise and Collapse of Wall Street's House of Debt The Agonist
'Crony' Capitalism Is Root Cause Of Fannie And Freddie Troubles
The Long Road to Slack Lending Standards
Barney Frank's Bankrupt Ideas