Friday, May 14, 2010

DJIA 5,000?

Click here: CNBC Stock Market News — Another 'Freefall' to Push Dow Below 5000: Strategist - CNBC

If the primary Elliott Wave count is correct, we should be starting Primary Wave 3 which would take us much lower (wave equality plus) than the March 2009 low. The alternate wave count, which we have to consider, would be that the upward wave just completed is Wave 1 of another upward Wave 5. Considering the economic conditions and out of control spending by this administration, the primary count makes more sense. It will not happen overnight and may be slow with pockets of sharp declines.

I have taken positions in the SDS and QID and plan to hold them for a long time, although I have not liquidated all my stocks yet. We should get a rally back close to the DJI 11,000 level (a wave 2 rally after we complete the current wave 1 decline below DJI 10,380) and if it doesn't make a new high over about DJI 11,250, that would be the time to liquidate.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Housing Bubble Continues

Click here: housing bulls are "not paying attention" to the facts says dean baker: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

"Baker lays out several reasons for his bearish case:

Programs that lifted the market, including the tax credit for first-time buyers, have expired.
The Federal Reserve is exiting the mortgage market, which will likely push rates to 5.5% to 6% by the end of the year.
There's still an inventory glut and rental rates are falling in many markets, notes Baker, author of "False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy." He says the rental market doesn't lie."